What Next for Dave?
So what next for Dave? Answers on a postcard, please, to Tory Towers in London. He'll need to learn how to answer the question, this early jibe setting the tone for a lacklustre performance by the frontrunner to be the Prime Minister. Curiously unconfident, devoid of humour, Cameron went into the debate with most to lose and lost the most.
One problem for Tory Towers is home affairs, the theme of last night's first of three, was the equivalent of home turf for the Cons not least because crime and immigration are traditional strong cards for the Right-wing. Next Thursday in the South West and international affairs, Gordon Brown and Nick Clegg will beat up Cameron for jumping into bed with Europe's racist, homophobic nutters. In the third and final bout on the economy, despite the recession, remains Chancellor-turned-PM Brown's specialist subject.
Politicalbetting asks if Clegg's strong showing makes a Hung Parliament less likely. The answer's No. Great site but anyone following its advice would've lost a fortune by betting on a March election never mind being surprised to see Brown in last night's debate after his toppling was repeatedly predicted last year. In fairness a lot of pundits called that badly wrong. Yet I'm sure Lib Dem MPs such as Susan Kramer in Richmond Park and North Kingston, where I live, will be cheering Clegg today and the likes of her challenger Zac Goldsmith will be worried they've wasted their money. I mustn't get carried away. Much can happen over the next three weeks. Labour may lose a few votes to the Lib Dems. Yet if Clegg remains flavour of the moment I reckon his rise will hit the Cons hardest. Labour's down to a core-plus bedrock and doesn't expect to poll higher than low to mid 30s(Blair scored only 36% in 2005). Clegg fracturing the "change" vote may deny Cameron a breakthrough. My feeling is a Hung Parliament's more likely though I don't gamble on politics to avoid charges of insider dealing since what I write in the Mirror or say on TV and Radio may sway a few voters.*
This was my instant, unspin assessment last night for today's Daily Mirror. I see on TV in my Manchester hotel room the Sky poll has Brown marginally ahead of Cameron and both behind Clegg. I'm off to a Lancashire Labour-Tory marginal to discover what, if any, impression the debate made on the ground.
* The one exception is a friendly bet of lunch in London's Gay Hussar restaurant with my old Guardian colleague Martin Kettle. Back in September I said Brown would(and he said Brown wouldn't) top Michael Foot's 27.8% in 1983
One problem for Tory Towers is home affairs, the theme of last night's first of three, was the equivalent of home turf for the Cons not least because crime and immigration are traditional strong cards for the Right-wing. Next Thursday in the South West and international affairs, Gordon Brown and Nick Clegg will beat up Cameron for jumping into bed with Europe's racist, homophobic nutters. In the third and final bout on the economy, despite the recession, remains Chancellor-turned-PM Brown's specialist subject.
Politicalbetting asks if Clegg's strong showing makes a Hung Parliament less likely. The answer's No. Great site but anyone following its advice would've lost a fortune by betting on a March election never mind being surprised to see Brown in last night's debate after his toppling was repeatedly predicted last year. In fairness a lot of pundits called that badly wrong. Yet I'm sure Lib Dem MPs such as Susan Kramer in Richmond Park and North Kingston, where I live, will be cheering Clegg today and the likes of her challenger Zac Goldsmith will be worried they've wasted their money. I mustn't get carried away. Much can happen over the next three weeks. Labour may lose a few votes to the Lib Dems. Yet if Clegg remains flavour of the moment I reckon his rise will hit the Cons hardest. Labour's down to a core-plus bedrock and doesn't expect to poll higher than low to mid 30s(Blair scored only 36% in 2005). Clegg fracturing the "change" vote may deny Cameron a breakthrough. My feeling is a Hung Parliament's more likely though I don't gamble on politics to avoid charges of insider dealing since what I write in the Mirror or say on TV and Radio may sway a few voters.*
This was my instant, unspin assessment last night for today's Daily Mirror. I see on TV in my Manchester hotel room the Sky poll has Brown marginally ahead of Cameron and both behind Clegg. I'm off to a Lancashire Labour-Tory marginal to discover what, if any, impression the debate made on the ground.
* The one exception is a friendly bet of lunch in London's Gay Hussar restaurant with my old Guardian colleague Martin Kettle. Back in September I said Brown would(and he said Brown wouldn't) top Michael Foot's 27.8% in 1983
No comments:
Post a Comment